Tuesday 8 April 2014

The Crabbie’s Grand National in numbers

Pineau De Re, owned by John Provan and trained by Dr Richard Newland has triumphed in the 2014 Grand National and now has its name immortalised on the Aintree honours board. The race proved to be tremendously competitive this year but, the thirteenth fence apart, Leighton Aspell plotted Pineau’s way around the traditionally tough course and staged a perfectly timed bid for the front to take the prize by five lengths from Balthazar King.

The Grand National transcends racing in the UK and it seems everyone takes an interest in the handicapped event, for many it’s their one bet of the year. The enormous scale of the event, blanket media coverage and national fervour surrounding the 167 year old race create a clamour for information, stories and statistics. The rich history and substantial field of runners each year certainly provide the statisticians with plenty of numbers to crunch. So, here are just a few thrown up by the race.

As well as the 71,000 race goers who attended the event at the Aintree course on Saturday, an estimated 600 million viewers watched the race in 140 countries worldwide through officially syndicated transmissions. Add to this figure many more watching illegally streamed or diverted satellite feeds and the viewing figures could realistically be pushing a billion. That’s one in seven people on the planet.



In the UK alone, approximately 37.5 million individual bets were placed on the race, totalling in excess of £300 million, working out at about £8 per bet. These figures don’t take into account bets placed with unofficial, illegal bookmakers or money changing hands in private wagers.

Individuals methods of choosing a horse to bet on can vary from the highly scientific to the downright random. For those punters wishing to avoid the ‘blindfold & pin’ method it might be worth bearing in mind the following stats. In the last 30 years of the race an 11 year old horse has won on nine occasions, including Saturday. 9 and 10 year olds have won eight times each in the same time period with no other age making much impact on the four and a half miler.

12 times in the last thirty outings a horse going off between 11-1 and 25-1 has taken the prize, with 10-1 or less winning on nine occasions and horses between 26-1 and 50-1. There have been a couple of fairytale results of more than 50-1 in this period, including Mon Mome at 100-1 in 2009, reinforcing the unpredictability of The National. In fact, the favourite has met expectations on only eight occasions in the last 52 runs.



However, maybe there is something in a name. As was pointed out to me recently a horse whose name is comprised of two words has won on eighteen occasions in the last thirty outings. Statistics can be used to prove anything of course.

The prize money for the race itself has grown over the last 25 years from £115,000 to the present day purse of £1 million. You might think this is enough but this substantial reward hasn’t precluded owners from having a wager as well. Two of the largest individual wins in the history of the event have been placed by owners. In 2003 Mike Futter, owner of Monty’s Pass, took an early price of 50-1 and placed £10,000 to win half a million when Barry Geraghty guided home his charge.

This win was dwarfed by Edward Studd, the owner of the 1866 winner, Salamander. Mr Studd placed £1,000 on the race at 40-1, pocketing the equivalent of £3 million in today’s money.


However, following the bad press concerning horse and jockey safety in the late nineties and early two-thousands my favourite statistic from yesterday’s race was that of the forty starters and eighteen finishers there were zero fatalities and all the jockeys made it back to the weigh-in room in one piece.

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